Which prior probability distribution should the ML Specialist use for this variable?

A Machine Learning Specialist is implementing a full Bayesian network on a dataset that describes public transit in New York City. One of the random variables is discrete, and represents the number of minutes New Yorkers wait for a bus given that the buses cycle every 10 minutes, with a mean of 3 minutes.

Which prior probability distribution should the ML Specialist use for this variable?
A . Poisson distribution ,
B . Uniform distribution
C . Normal distribution
D . Binomial distribution

View Answer

Answer: A

Explanation:

The prior probability distribution for the discrete random variable that represents the number of minutes New Yorkers wait for a bus is a Poisson distribution. A Poisson distribution is suitable for modeling the number of events that occur in a fixed interval of time or space, given a known average rate of occurrence. In this case, the event is waiting for a bus, the interval is 10 minutes, and the average rate is 3 minutes. The Poisson distribution can capture the variability of the waiting time, which can range from 0 to 10 minutes, with different probabilities.

References:

1: Poisson Distribution – Amazon SageMaker

2: Poisson Distribution – Wikipedia