Which of the following statements are correct?

Which of the following statements are correct?

I. A reliance upon conditional probabilities and a-priori views of probabilities is called the ‘frequentist’ view

II. Knightian uncertainty refers to things that might happen but for which probabilities cannot be evaluated

III. Risk mitigation and risk elimination are approaches to reacting to identified risks

IV. Confidence accounting is a reference to the accounting frauds that were seen in the past decadeas a reflection of failed governance processes
A . II, III and IV
B . II and III
C . I and IV
D . All of the above

View Answer

Answer: B

Explanation:

In statistics, which is relevant to risk management, a distinction is often drawn between ‘frequentists’ and ‘Bayesians’. Frequentists rely upon data to draw conclusions as to probabilities. Bayesians consider conditional probabilities, ie, take into account what things are already known, and inject sometimes subjective a-priori probabilities into the calculations. StatementI describes Bayesians, and not frequentists. In reality however, the difference is merely academic. Risk managers use whichever technique best applies to the given situation without making it about ideology.

The difference between ‘Knightian uncertainty ‘and ‘Risk’ is similarly academic. Knightian uncertainty refers to risk that cannot be measured or calculated. ‘Risk’ on the other hand refers to things for which past data exists and calculations of exposure can be made. To give an example in the contextof the financial world, the risk from a pandemic creating systemic failures from a failure of payment and settlement systems and the like is ‘Knightian uncertainty’, but the market risk from equity price movements can be modeled (albeit with limitations) and is calculable. Statement II is therefore correct.

Once a risk is identified, it can be mitigated, accepted, avoided or eliminated, or transferred by way of insurance. Therefore statement III is correct.

Confidence accounting is a conceptual idea that suggests that accounting statements make reference to ranges as opposed to point estimates in financial statements. For example, instead of saying that the pension obligation is $xx million, the company should say the pension obligation is in a range of $xxm – $yy m with a certain confidence level. Statement IV is therefore inaccurate.