Which of the following forecasting methods relies on the opinions of a panel of experts?

Which of the following forecasting methods relies on the opinions of a panel of experts?
A . Delphi technique
B . Survey method
C . Causal method
D . Time series analysis

View Answer

Answer: A

Explanation:

The Delphi technique is a structured forecasting method that relies on the opinions of a panel of experts.

Here’s how it works:

Expert Panel: A group of experts in the relevant field is selected to provide their insights and forecasts.

Iterative Rounds: The process involves multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to the experts. After each round, a facilitator provides a summary of the forecasts and reasons provided by the panel. Anonymity: Experts provide their opinions anonymously to prevent the influence of dominant individuals and to encourage unbiased input.

Convergence: Through iterative feedback and revisions, the panel’s forecasts tend to converge towards a consensus.

The Delphi technique is particularly useful for long-term forecasting and scenarios where quantitative data is scarce or unreliable.

Reference: Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Springer.

Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis." International Journal of Forecasting.