Which of the following factors would generate actual sales figures that are likely to differ markedly from the forecast?

A clothes retailer has estimated a linear trend equation including trend, seasonal and cyclical components to forecast its sales for the next four quarters.

Which of the following factors would generate actual sales figures that are likely to differ markedly from the forecast?
A . A drop in sales due to emergency roadwork blocking access to the store.
B . A drop in sales due to the ongoing economic recession.
C . An increase in sales due to the increasing popularity of their brand.
D . An increase in sales before a major religious festival.

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Answer: D