How should the risk manager interpret such a low CPI value?

A two-year project with a budget of US$2 million has completed about 60% of the work at the end of the first year. The actual cost incurred to complete the remaining 40% of work is about USS 1. 5 million. As a part of performing a specialized risk analysis, the calculated schedule performance index (SPI) is 1. 2 and cost performance index (CPI) is 0.53 .

How should the risk manager interpret such a low CPI value?
A . The cost control processes is ineffective.
B . The cost baseline is inaccurate.
C . The actual reported costs are inaccurate.
D . The cost related risks are effectively managed.

View Answer

Answer: B

Explanation:

A low CPI value (0.53) indicates that the project is over budget. This may be due to an inaccurate cost baseline, which means the initial budget estimation was not correct. This would not necessarily mean that cost control processes are ineffective, actual reported costs are inaccurate, or cost-related risks are effectively managed.

The CPI value is calculated by dividing the earned value (EV) by the actual cost (AC). A CPI value of less than 1 indicates that the project is over budget, meaning that the actual cost is higher than the planned cost. A low CPI value can have several possible causes, such as poor estimation, scope creep, change requests, or inaccurate reporting. However, in this case, the SPI value is greater than 1, which indicates that the project is ahead of schedule, meaning that the earned value is higher than the planned value. This suggests that the cost baseline, which is derived from the planned value, is inaccurate and does not reflect the true cost of the work. Therefore, the risk manager should interpret such a low CPI value as a sign of an inaccurate cost baseline, and not as a result of ineffective cost control processes, inaccurate actual costs, or effective cost related risk management.

Reference: PMI-RMP® Certification Handbook1, page 9; PMBOK® Guide, page 267.